COVID-19 outbreak may end in PH by May 8, SIR model shows

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    Based on data driven analysis using susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, results of the codes from a professor of University of Ljubljana in Slovenia have predicted that COVID-19 outbreak would soon end in the Philippines.

    The function fitVirusCV19 of Prof. Milan Batista implements the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model for the estimation of epidemy evaluation by regressing data from different countries to forecast the key dates of transition during the coronavirus lifecycle across the globe. In his notes, he said “it is assumed that the model is a reasonable description of the one-stage epidemic”.

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    “In particular, the model assumes a constant population, uniform mixing of the people, and equally likely recovery of infected. The model is data-driven, so its forecast is as good as data are. The forecasting change with new or changed data,” he added.

    The SIR model and the codes of Prof. Batista have predicted that COVID-19 will end 97% in the Philippines around May 8 or will end 99% around May 19. The model uses data from Our World in Data and applies the SIR model, with caution that the analysis and predictions are only for educational and research purposes, shows that the COVID-19 outbreak will end in the country 100% by July 1.

    COVID-19 outbreak may end in PH by May 8, SIR model shows
    COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines may end 97% around May 8. MATLAB output is provided by SUTD Data-Driven Innovation Lab.
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    Reports on Friday (April 24), President Rodrigo Roa Duterte has extended the enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila, Central Luzon and CALABARZON until May 15.

    Meanwhile, the total number of cases in the Philippines jumped to 7,579 which includes 6,216 active cases, 862 recovered cases, and 501 deaths as per Department of Health data as of 4 pm on Sunday (April 26). A total of 285 new cases and 7 deaths reported in the April 26 report.

    According to the SIR model, COVID-19 pandemic is likely to end 97% in the world on May 29 and end 100% on December 8, 2020. 


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