Google Predicts Rodrigo Duterte to Win 2016 Election


Forget the 2016 election. Google tells us who will really win the upcoming Philippine presidential election in May 2016.

A spin through Google Trends shows what people think about the presidentiables.

(READ: Google Trends: Duterte still on top, search interest surges after 2nd debate)

UPDATE: Google predicts Rodrigo Duterte to win 2016 election
Rodrigo Duterte leads the race in Google search queries among presidentiables from June 2015 to December 2015. Photo courtesy of Philstar

This is not the first try to find a correlation of Google search trends to potential election outcomes. In 2010 national elections, Sen. Benigno Aquino (in blue) was clearly leading in the amount of raw search activity compared to other presidential candidates.

2010 Philippine election results - Google Trends

When the results were out, Benigno Aquino III won the presidential race with 15,208,678 votes (42.08%) while Joseph Estrada obtained 9,487,837 votes (26.25%), Manny Villar with 5,573,835 (15.42%), and Gilberto Teodoro with 4,095,839 (11.33%).

Though Joseph Estrada came third in Google queries, but still he managed to be on the second place because he was popular with the lower class voting population that rarely use the internet that time.

Presidential candidate queries (June 2015-December 2015)

If applied to the upcoming election, presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte has the highest likelihood of winning the race.

2016 Election likelihood - Google Trends

You can see in the chart that Vice President Jejomar Binay starting strong, with Duterte in second place. But as the rumor that he will run as president progressed, Duterte held on, only fell in the third position in September 2015. By the end, he was in the first place.

Average percentage of queries for Rodrigo Duterte from June 2015 to December 2015 Even on the average percentage of queries, Rodrigo Duterte (26 percent) leads the race from June to December 2015. Behind him are Jejomar Binay (12 percent), Grace Poe (8 percent), Mar Roxas (5 percent), and Miriam Santiago (5 percent).

Duterte leads among a wide array of possible Philippine primary voters who used Google in their presidential candidate queries.

He appears to be the top choice among Googlers from November 9 to December 5: he holds a large lead among other candidates who searched about each one of them. He got 100 points. Behind him were Grace Poe (27 points), Jejomar Binay (10 points), Mar Roxas (8 points), and Miriam Santiago (8 points).

Google Predicts Rodrigo Duterte to Win 2016 Election (November 29 to December 5)
View full report at Google Trends

If this is any indication, Duterte will be doing a good job in the coming 2016 presidential election.

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  1. magkakadesiplina din mga tao…. which is achievable… ko kung nasa davao ka mahahawa karin sa ugali nga mga tao interms of following the law… wla namang special law talaga sa davao… strict lang talaga implementation doon..

  2. the end is fast approaching for this yellow administration… lets start the new Change of government and forget all the grudges in the past… we will support Mayor Duterte for President… and i already felt that he is the ONE, the President of our country… God bless you po….